Can Zheng Mian Long Hold 12000 Yuan / Ton?

At present, the transaction price of Zheng cotton, cotton spot and reserve cotton has become a "resonance" rising situation. Some cotton processing enterprises and traders are even reluctant to sell and do not quote. The cotton enterprises' bullish mood is constantly stimulated and mobilized.

As for the reasons for this round of Zheng cotton rebound, the industry views can be summarized as follows: first, the reserve cotton wheel set 11500 yuan / T "fuse" minimum price, which is higher than the price of cf2007 in recent months, and the expectation is "inverted"; second, the central bank "asymmetric" interest rate cut, monetary policy continues to be loose, causing the collective rise of stock market and commodity futures market; third, since June, cotton in Northern Xinjiang The continuous high temperature and little rain in the district and the aggravation of drought (some divisions and cities of XPCC suffered the most serious drought in the past decade), which provided conditions for the speculation funds to enter the market and pull up; fourthly, the economic data released in June showed that there was no inflation or deflation risk in China's economy. There is still room for speed-up and recovery after the cotton textile and clothing industry returns to work and production; fifthly, the Xinguan epidemic situation has been comprehensively controlled, and Beijing has zero growth for several consecutive days. Professor Zhang Wenhong judged that "the epidemic situation in China has ended.".

Then, can Zheng Mian's main force hold 12000 yuan / ton and attack 12500 yuan / ton in the short term? The author thinks that different from the "bull market" of a shares, although the capital market has a keen sense of smell and has the upper hand in the game with the industry in the short term, with the change of the "wind direction" of the stock market, commodity futures and asset management regulation, the power of speculation may be weakened. Therefore, it is difficult for Zheng Mian to hold 12000 yuan / ton. The reasons are as follows:

Firstly, with the continuous rise of the transaction price of reserve cotton, which is equal to or even "inverted" with the futures contract in recent months and the spot price of cotton in Xinjiang, the bearing capacity and digestion capacity of cotton textile enterprises have decreased, and the enthusiasm of participating in bidding and taking goods in late July is gradually weakened, and the daily turnover transaction rate may gradually decline; secondly, July to August is the off-season of cotton textile and clothing industry, with orders As of July 8, 20365 Zheng cotton warehouse orders, 1895 effective forecasts, the total cotton yield of 946000 tons, only two and a half months from the listing of new cotton, so large How to deal with quantity warehouse receipt? Fifthly, as the US general election approaches, trade and political relations between China and the United States, China and India, and China and Europe are facing certain uncertainties, and the factors supporting cotton prices in the future are limited.