China's Imports Of US Cotton Will Decrease.

The recent fall in cotton prices is closely related to the escalation of trade frictions between China and the US. Insiders say that after China's tariffs are imposed, the import volume of US cotton will decrease, while the imports of cotton, black cotton and West African cotton will increase. "China's 25% tariff on cotton and cotton is most directly affected by the increase in the cost of importing American cotton, and the import of US cotton will basically stagnate. The 1% tariff quota of imported cotton will be good for cotton, black cotton and West African cotton because of lower tariff rate and later purchase of high grade cotton. The newly issued 800 thousand tons of sliding tax quotas, or relatively good prices are relatively low India cotton. Gao Feitang, an information analyst at Zhuo Chuang, said there was news that India Cotton Association and cotton related enterprises believed that the export volume of India's cotton to China could increase to 5 million packs in 2018/19, 5 times more than that of the previous year.

Gao Feitang believes that China's tariffs on the US cotton plus will directly impact the US cotton export to China, but other countries still need support for us cotton demand. "In the long term, if China's imports turn to other non American cotton varieties, its limited supply will force other countries to increase imports to US cotton, while foreign people believe that China's imports of US cotton will be reduced, and that ICE futures may fall by 70-75 cents, which will help other countries to increase imports of US cotton. Therefore, the impact of China's tariffs on the US cotton trade on US cotton exports will gradually weaken over time. Gao Fei Tang said.

It is worth noting that Sino US trade friction is domestic. market Will have far-reaching consequences. "Domestic enterprises worry that the cost of cotton will rise after tariff increases, and the cost of downstream spinning products will increase, which will further compress the profits of cotton spinning enterprises and reduce the export competitiveness of textile enterprises. At the same time, the increase in domestic cost will cause resistance to the development of spinning enterprises, and domestic raw cotton consumption will also be affected, resulting in a bad situation for China. " Gao Fei Tang said.

Gao Fei Tang stressed that China, as the second largest economy in the world, has been developing rapidly since the reform and opening up. Facing the more difficulties ahead, it is inevitable that the historical development will rise. So for the huge Chinese economy, trade friction has some resistance to domestic economic development, but China still has room for imagination for its strong bearing capacity. Therefore, the most important thing for the industry to do is to do well in risk prevention. "The persistence of Sino US trade disputes and the uncertainty of disputes results in the impact of tariffs on exports of textiles and clothing to the United States. China's adjustment of cotton imports to other countries, such as India and other countries, has affected global and even China's future cotton supply and demand pattern."

Wang Shutong, an information analyst at Zhuo Chuang, said that as one of the commodities, the persistence and uncertainty of Sino US dispute results in global financial markets and commodities. market The effects of change will be more or less transmitted indirectly. cotton This product. Such as the crude oil problem caused by the Iran issue, the RMB exchange rate change, the possibility of the US dollar continuing to raise interest rates in the future, whether China's future fiscal and monetary policies will be adjusted, and whether the import and export tariffs will involve products will increase.