CPI Low Level Continued To Decline, Deflation Pressure Continues To Expand

From the analysis of the trade surplus and foreign exchange occupying index affecting domestic liquidity, the agencies surveyed believe that the forecast of the trade surplus in the first quarter of 2015 was 700 billion yuan, while the average forecast of the new foreign exchange scale was about 81 billion 500 million yuan, which showed a substantial increase compared with the negative growth of foreign exchange in the previous quarter.

According to the survey results of this quarter's economic situation, in view of the fact that the current macro-economy is facing greater pressure of growth, especially the deflationary pressure is becoming more and more obvious, it is bound to push the central bank's monetary policy to a more relaxed direction.

Following the asymmetric rate cut in November 2014, the central bank announced another 0.25 percentage point cut in February 28, 2015.

In addition to releasing liquidity considerations, the central bank maintained the keynote of easing monetary policy in 2015, and will also focus on reducing deflation pressure and promoting it.

Steady recovery.

From this quarter's economic situation

In the first quarter of 2015, the proportion of the social financing scale increased in the first quarter of 2015, except that 1 agencies believed that it would remain unchanged, 5 agencies thought it would drop, and that the 6 agencies thought it would rise.

Among them, in the first quarter of 2015, the prediction of the growth of social financing scale was 5 trillion and 270 billion, the maximum predicted value was 6 trillion and 300 billion, and the lowest predicted value was 4 trillion and 800 billion.

From this quarter

According to the survey results, in the prediction of the new RMB loans in the first quarter of 2015, all 1 of the agencies surveyed believe that compared with the previous quarter, 1 agencies will consider that they will drop, and the remaining 10 agencies believe that they will rise.

Among them, the average value of new RMB loans in the first quarter of 2015 was 3 trillion and 280 billion, the maximum predicted value was 3 trillion and 500 billion, and the predicted minimum value was 2 trillion and 500 billion.

According to the survey results of this quarter's economic situation, in the prediction of the year-on-year growth of M2 in the first quarter of 2015, except for the 1 agencies, the 5 agencies thought that the 5 institutions would increase, while the remaining 6 agencies thought it would drop.

Among them, the average forecast of M2 growth in the end of 12 was 12.02%, the maximum predicted value was 13%, and the predicted minimum value was 11.2%.

A comprehensive analysis of the scale of social financing, new RMB loans and M2 and other liquidity indicators showed that in 2013 1-12, the scale of social financing was 17 trillion and 290 billion yuan, and the new RMB loans were 8 trillion and 890 billion yuan; in 2014 1-12, the scale of social financing was 16 trillion and 460 billion yuan, and the new RMB loans were 9 trillion and 780 billion yuan.

In addition, M2 grew by 13.6% and 12.2% respectively at the end of 12 and the end of 2014 2013 at the end of 2014.

Combined with the financial data in January 2015 and February, the scale of social financing in January and February was about 2 trillion and 50 billion yuan and 1 trillion and 350 billion yuan respectively. The growth of new RMB loans was 1 trillion and 470 billion yuan and 1 trillion and 140 billion yuan respectively, while M2 grew by 10.08% and 12.5% respectively.

This shows that the central bank will continue to adopt a relaxation policy in the future to release the pressure of market liquidity.