Yifu Lin'S Interpretation Of The Future Trend Of Textile Industry

Yifu Lin, a famous economist and professor and honorary president of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, attended the annual recognition ceremony of the 2014 China textile industry's annual innovation figures. He delivered a keynote speech on the new normal and China's economic development and industrial upgrading and pformation.

He believes that the textile industry will continue to make new contributions to the national economy under the new normal.

Later advantage, smile curve...

These seemingly old economic terms were once again emphasized by him as the key words of textile industry's self improvement.

In the past few years, there are always some voices in the world that are bad mouthing China's economy.

In my opinion, the analysis of the conditions of a country's economic growth depends on two aspects: its internal potential and external conditions.

Since 2009, the economic development of developed countries has entered a new normal. For example, in the United States, the growth rate of GDP is less than 3% in recent two years, and the 6%~7% growth rate of the recovery rebound has not yet appeared.

In the next few years, the external demand of China's economy may not be good, but there is still room for internal demand and upgrading.

Compared with developed countries, the demand for infrastructure, technology upgrading and urbanization has provided broad investment space for the development of China's economy from low to medium to high levels.

Compared with developed countries, China is

And industrial upgrading, there are still cutting-edge technology and development models can be used for reference, digestion and absorption.

Textile industry innovation and

The space for ascension will continue to exist.

It is predicted that in the next two years,

GDP will grow faster than China.

In recent years, India's leaders are strengthening the development strategy of "India manufacturing", and their domestic wages are only 1/4 of China. Therefore, India is expected to become the most important country to undertake industrial pfer in China in the future.

According to the established development goal, China will double its total industrial output value and residents' income by 2020.

At that time, China will quickly enter the ranks of high-income countries.

The average annual income of Chinese residents in 2010 is US $4400, which will reach US $8800 in 2020.

Coupled with the appreciation of the renminbi, China's per capita GDP will reach US $12 thousand and 615 in 2020.

This brings a happy result: China will be the largest country in the world and is expected to account for 20%~30% of the world's new market.

But at the same time, one of the major challenges facing the textile industry is the increase in wages.

In 2020, the average monthly salary of China's front-line workers will reach 1000 US dollars.

Under such circumstances, the three major textile industries, namely textile, textile machinery and garment, will face different development conditions.

Relatively speaking, the capital and technology intensity of textile and textile machinery industry is relatively high. In the next 10~20 years, the upgrading space will be larger, especially in the textile machinery industry. As the labor-intensive enterprises turn more out, the textile machinery enterprises will have huge demand space.

Wage increases pose a major challenge to the garment industry, and labour costs are expected to double in the next 6 years.

Therefore, there is room for development for garment enterprises that have good brands and smile curves, while processing enterprises are bound to shift to new cost depressions.

What is the prospect of "going out" of enterprises? From the example of "going out" in past years in China's Hongkong and Taiwan, China's manufacturing industry has turned to the cost depression in the mainland of China, and the general result is that it has accumulated advantages for the development and growth of enterprises.

Figuratively speaking, large enterprises are still large enterprises, and small businesses have grown into large ones.

Personally, I think Vietnam, Kampuchea, Bangladesh and other countries now have a very fast wage increase. Africa will be the last stop of the global labour intensive industry.