Annual Report Growth Curve Of A-Share Semiconductors: The Prelude Of Domestic Substitution: 38 Enterprises Are Expecting The Most Brilliant Seal Test Industry

Under the catalysis of domestic substitution, the overall performance of semiconductor industry has been realized.

According to wind data statistics, as of January 30, 72 companies in the semiconductor sector have announced their performance forecasts for 2020, among which 38 companies are expected to be happy in their annual reports. In the subdivided industries, the performance of sealing and testing enterprises is the most outstanding, with the average forecast net profit increasing by 809% - 951% year on year.

"On the whole, the prosperity of wafer manufacturing, packaging, power semiconductor, CIS, MCU, PMIC and other semiconductor segments is relatively high, so the industry performance in the second half of last year is good." On February 2, an Xin securities electronic industry analyst Ma Liang told reporters.

According to the reporter's interview, among the promotion factors of semiconductor performance growth, price rising tide and domestic substitution played a major role. Looking ahead, the production capacity of many companies in the semiconductor industry chain remained tense in the first quarter, the price rise continued, and the prosperity was expected to run through the whole year.

Sealing and testing industry is the most prominent

Specifically, among the 72 semiconductor companies that have announced their performance forecasts, 32 have increased in advance, 6 have increased slightly, 11 have turned losses, and 1 have continued to make profits; 10 companies have pre reduced, 2 companies have slightly decreased, 3 companies have first loss, 6 companies have continued loss, and 1 is uncertain.

In the subdivided industries, the performance of sealing and testing enterprises is the most outstanding. The average forecast net profit of the four sealing and testing enterprises increased by 809% - 951% year on year.

Among them, Tongfu Micro Electric Co., Ltd. has the highest growth rate. It is expected to realize net profit of about 320 million yuan - 420 million yuan last year, with a year-on-year increase of 1571.77% - 2094.20%. The company said that, driven by emerging applications such as 5g, intelligence and new infrastructure, the prosperity and market demand of the integrated circuit industry have increased quarter by quarter; thanks to the wave of IC localization, the company's domestic customers' orders have increased significantly; international key customers have continued to expand their market share by taking advantage of the process advantages, and the order demand has grown strongly; the demand for communication products from overseas major customers is strong, with orders In particular, in the fourth quarter, the company's production capacity fell short of demand and production and sales were booming.

Another sealed test leader, Changdian technology, also achieved a net profit increase of 1287.27%, which is expected to achieve a net profit of about 1.23 billion yuan. Changdian technology said that during the reporting period, the demand for orders from international and domestic key customers was strong, and the company's factories continued to increase cost control and operating expense control, effectively improving the company's overall profitability.

Huatian technology is expected to achieve a net profit of about 650 million yuan to 750 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 126.64% - 161.51%, which also mentioned that it benefited from the acceleration of domestic substitution; Jingfang technology expected to achieve a net profit of about 378 million yuan to 390 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 249.01% - 260.09%. The company said that it benefited from the new development trend of multi camera such as mobile phone three camera, four camera, continuous growth of security digital market, and automobile The gradual rise of camera applications and other factors, the company's production orders are full.

Also benefited from the expansion of domestic semiconductor capacity investment, the market demand of semiconductor equipment manufacturers is also rising.

China's largest semiconductor etching equipment supplier, Zhongwei company, is expected to achieve a net profit of about 440 million yuan to 520 million yuan last year, with a year-on-year increase of 133.34% - 175.77%. It said that, benefiting from the development of semiconductor equipment market and the company's product competitive advantages, the company's etching equipment revenue will increase by about 58.5% in 2020.

The main product of Xinyuan micro is gluing / developing machine, which is the key processing equipment to cooperate with lithography machine. As the prosperity of the semiconductor industry continues to improve, the company's product orders will rise rapidly in 2020, and the annual operating revenue will increase significantly year on year. It is estimated that the net profit will be about 47 million yuan to 53 million yuan, with an increase of 60.54% - 81.04%.

The net profit growth of material enterprises is also considerable. Last year, the net profit of Zhongjing technology, which mainly engaged in semiconductor silicon chips, increased by 27.06% - 34.54%; that of jiejie micro electric, which mainly engaged in power semiconductor discrete devices, increased by 45% - 55% last year; the main business of Zhuosheng micro was RF front-end chip, with a net profit increase of 101.14% - 111.20%.

Chen Mengjie, a strategic analyst of YueKai securities, told reporters, "the performance of the semiconductor industry in 2020 will show the characteristics of high overall growth, outstanding sealed test and bright leader."

"It is mainly due to the prosperity of the industry and domestic substitution. The industry as a whole is located in the upward range of the innovation cycle. Under the trend of 5g and Internet of things, RF, optics and storage drive the downstream demand growth. The sealing and testing plate serves as the bayonet of capacity output. The leading enterprises benefit from the rising price effect of both quantity and price, tight supply and demand, and the scale effect of high capacity utilization rate brings about cost reduction. Leading enterprises further benefit from domestic substitution, reflecting the growth attribute. " Chen Mengjie said.

Ma Liang further said, "it is mainly the price rise caused by the shortage of 8-inch wafers and domestic substitution. Further, the growth of downstream demand is the main reason, and the performance of companies with high proportion of domestic substitution is better."

In the overall upward situation of the industry, some enterprises are getting rid of the quagmire of loss.

However, the profit source of loss recovery enterprises is mainly contributed by non recurring profit and loss. For example, the operating income of Shanghai silicon industry will increase to a certain extent in 2020, but the net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company after deducting the non recurring profit and loss is still a loss, and turning the loss into profit is mainly due to the influence of the profit and loss caused by the change of fair value; * ST profit-making party is mainly due to the completion of major asset restructuring.

However, some enterprises still suffered the first loss due to the epidemic situation. Abison is mainly engaged in the R & D and production of LED electronic display screen, with a net profit loss of about 60 million yuan - 95 million yuan last year. It said that affected by the new crown epidemic, the global LED display market shrank and the overall demand declined. The company's operating income mainly comes from the international market, resulting in serious impact on the overall income.

Inflection point of performance certainty

Prior to this, the 21st century economic report reporter had made a survey on the explosion of semiconductor packaging and testing industry. As the wafer plant was fully loaded with capacity, the production and sales of downstream packaging and testing plants were booming. Leading enterprises in packaging and testing have gradually raised prices to cope with the shortage of market capacity. Some industry insiders revealed that from the order situation, the first two quarters of this year sealed test industry boom will continue.

Coincidentally, at the beginning of this year, several large semiconductor manufacturers, such as xinjieneng, huiding technology, shilanwei and Fuman electronics, issued price increase notices. The price increase strategy is expected to have a positive impact on the gross profit margin of the above companies.

From the perspective of industrial chain transmission, the main line of prosperity transmission of domestic design, manufacturing, sealing and testing is clear.

According to the analysis of Anxin securities, domestic design manufacturers are the first to benefit from the boom. According to the statistics of China Semiconductor Association, the design industry will increase by 24.1% from January to September 2020, and the industry prosperity will be transmitted to the wafer manufacturing sector. Due to the impact of the epidemic, the production capacity of many overseas wafer factories will be damaged, the terminal demand will be strong and the security of the supply chain will be concerned. The imbalance between supply and demand of global wafer production capacity will be mainly manifested in the extension of delivery time and the rise in prices of some standard products After that, sealing and testing industry also began to increase prices to meet customer demand and insufficient capacity.

The research report also pointed out that the sealing test is the most mature industry plate in China, and the domestic large-scale sealing and testing plants are just beginning to enter the large-scale expansion period, and the sealing test may become the capacity bottleneck in the industrial chain in the short term. This may also explain last year's sealing test industry performance is the most eye-catching reason.

In this context, industry insiders have said that the semiconductor boom is not limited to individual sectors. The improvement of macro-economy and the low inventory of the whole supply chain will promote the growth of all sub sectors of semiconductors, especially the equipment and materials boom.

Among them, domestic substitution is still the main driving force. "At present, the self-sufficiency rate of the domestic semiconductor industry is only about 15%, and there is still significant room for domestic substitution. Sanctions incidents tend to ease in the short term, but the uncertainty of bilateral relations remains. It is urgent to replace domestic products in key fields such as chip manufacturing, equipment, materials, EDA and so on. " Chen Mengjie said.

From the fund's early layout, it seems to confirm the above-mentioned judgment of the scenery.

Wanlian securities research report pointed out that from the public funds in the fourth quarter of 2020, the proportion of heavy positions in the electronic sector ranked third in the Shenyi class industry, and the over allocation situation remained unchanged. In terms of the molecular sector, the semiconductor and optical optoelectronic fields boosted by the supply and demand cycle were particularly favored by the fund. In the fourth quarter, the fund invested 80.678 billion yuan in the semiconductor sector, up 37.89% month on month. However, the leading sector in the subdivision sector is still the first choice for fund allocation.