Sino-US Trade Rekindled Polyester Filament Trend Is Fierce And Rare?

This weekend, I thought the market would be calm. I didn't expect the Sino US trade war to continue to rekindle. This will bring "a storm" to the trend of polyester industry chain next week.

On the other hand, the terminal market of polyester filament has not yet improved significantly. The wait-and-see mentality is mainly based on rigid demand, and production and sales data continue to be weak. Next week, the trend is much more dangerous.

Cost side or a stalemate

The trade war between China and the United States keeps changing, and the cost of polyester filament ends in a stalemate. At present, the domestic PTA operating rate is maintained at 86.82%. In addition, the current stock is maintained at 1 million 121 thousand tons, which is at a neutral level. The supply performance is acceptable. However, as the new installations of Hengli 2 million 500 thousand tons and new Feng Ming 2 million 200 thousand tons are put into production, supply or loose pattern, and the current polyester and terminal industries are slightly weaker, the PTA market will show a weakening trend in the short run.

Ethylene glycol, the tight supply situation will continue, and the end of the month after the delivery of the market once again return to fundamentals, is expected to short-term domestic ethylene glycol market to maintain a shock pattern.

Stock prices rise when market turnover is light.

In the past month, the price of the polyester filament market has been more stable than that of the previous stage. At present, the average starting point of polyester industry is 88.81%, which is 2.73% higher than that of the ring. The device that relates to polyester filament is the restoration of the new Feng Ming device. Therefore, the supply side sees that the polyester filament is a small increase; while the production and marketing aspect is slightly lighter at present, and the mainstream factory production and marketing are concentrated in 40%-50% left and right; in the doldrums of production and marketing, the stock of polyester is also increasing, of which POY stock is 6-10 days, FDY stock is near 12-18 days, while DTY stock is about 21-26 days.

Demand side bearish mentality

According to market research, with the arrival of the "Kim Gu" traditional peak season, the order of loom looms has been slightly warmer than before. The new single filling situation is still showing a general performance. After the "Zhongyuan Festival" holiday, the opening rate of the big round machine Zhangcha area has improved. The Keqiao area has not changed much since last week, the start-up situation is serious, the starting rate is 15%, and the high value is 100%.

In addition, the number of enterprises with foreign trade as the main body is reduced by about 4 compared with the same period, and its operation confidence is not enough. From the sales point of view, the regular product library is rigorous, and the capital flow is not smooth.

To sum up: in the Sino US trade war rekindled, next week, upstream raw material or weak adjustment; demand side, although the downstream water jet, warp knitting machine, circular machine start rate is still good, but the procurement department needs rigid replenishment, polyester factory polyester filament production and marketing are uneven.

As the end of the month draws near, the polyester filament may appear to have a demand for tickets and rigid demand next week. The price change will depend on the raw material changes such as upstream PTA and MEG. (source: Guo Ye net, Jin Lianchuang)