Textile And Apparel: The Overall Improvement Of Consumer Data In June Continued To Differentiate In The Second Half Of The Year.

Market outlook: this week, the size index was divided, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index was basically flat throughout the week, the gem index rose 1.57%, the textile and garment industry fell 1.22% throughout the week, showing a weaker performance than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and the gem index, of which textile manufacturing and brand clothing plates fell by 0.62% and 1.87% respectively. In terms of stocks, the white horse stocks and some small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks are relatively strong. The Bosideng, Lao Fengxiang, Weixing shares and Huafu fashion that we cover have achieved positive returns.

Overseas news: (1) Baosheng's income rose 19.4% to 13 billion 400 million in the first half of the year. (2) the denim brand Madewell will be on sale, and the 500 million sales valuation is expected to reach US $2 billion. (3) in the three months ended June 30th, the retail value of Zhou Dafu's mainland stores increased by 24%, and the retail value of stores in Hong Kong and Macao decreased by 6%.

A share industry and important information: (1) in June 2019, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 9.8% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 1.2 percentage points higher than that in May. In June, retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats and needle textiles increased by 5.2% over the same period of June, while cosmetics retail sales increased by 22.5% over the same period last year, and the growth of gold and silver jewelry retail sales increased by 7.8% over the same period last year. (2) search special: the company's Share Buyback program has been completed. (3) Chao Hongji: Dongguan group transferred the 46 million shares of its company (5.08% of the total share capital of the company) to the new Guangdong kinetic energy equity investment partnership (limited partnership) by way of agreement transfer. (4) Yu Garden shares: the controlling shareholder of the company, Fosun International's takeover bid for TomTailor, has ended. Fosun international directly owns TomTailor46.75% shares, Yu Garden shares hold TomTailor29.99% shares, and Fosun international and Yu Garden shares jointly hold TomTailor76.75% shares.

This week's key report: brand clothing dilemma reversal series two: Lulu lemon how to upgrade from niche brand to sportswear giant.

This week we recommend plate combination: Hai Lan's home, Lao Fengxiang, Po Lai Ya and Bosideng. Last week's combination performance: Semir costumes -5%, Hai Lan home -3%, Lao Fengxiang 5%, -5% and Bosideng 4%.

Investment proposals and investment targets

On Monday, the National Bureau of statistics disclosed the retail sales figures of consumer goods in the first half of the year. The retail sales growth in June benefited from a sharp rebound in consumption, such as automobiles, and the growth rate was further warmer than in May. Cosmetic products continued to be excellent in terms of the consumer goods we covered, which increased by 22.5% in June and 16.7% in May. Clothing and jewellery and jewellery rings continued to improve (clothing increased by 5.2% in June, 4.1% in May, 7.8% in June, 4.7% in May), and electricity providers maintained rapid growth. In the two quarter, there was a significant difference between the different sectors. It is expected that the pattern of differentiation will continue in the second half of the year, and some of the categories entering the stock market will also speed up the market shuffling, and the industry concentration is going through a process of gradual improvement. 纺织服装板块经历三年多的调整,当前估值处于历史低位,我们认为后期下跌空间较为有限,板块投资方面,我们建议把握三条投资主线:(1)中短期:看好高景气细分领域快速增长的品种,比如李宁(02331,买入)、安踏体育(02020,中性)、珀莱雅(603605,买入)、南极电商(002127,增持)、周大生(002867,买入)和波司登(03998,买入),建议关注比音勒芬(002832,未评级);(2)长期:推荐估值低、长期前景看好的白马龙头,比如老凤祥(600612,买入)、海澜之家(600398,买入)、歌力思(603808,买入),建议关注雅戈尔(600177,未评级)等;(3)弹性品种,建议关注有可能困境反转的公司,比如探路者(300005,未评级)、梦洁股份(002397,未评级)等。

Risk warning

Economic slowdown on domestic retail terminal pressure, trade friction, cotton prices and RMB exchange rate fluctuations.