Depth Analysis: 2018 PTA Import And Export Counter Attack

According to the statistics of import and export data of PTA in past years, the average monthly import volume is 40 thousand tons, and the export volume is 50 thousand tons. This year's import and export volume has seen a slight upward trend.

Figure 12014-2018 PTA import volume comparison

Source: lung Chung

In 2018, the import volume of PTA increased. Especially in September, the import volume of PTA was as high as 122 thousand and 400 tons. The main reason was that the price of PTA rose sharply in August, and the import profit also went retrograde. It got rid of the upside down situation, caused the opening of the import window, and the quantity increased significantly. The main source of goods was Taiwan. But after the domestic PTA prices have been falling, imports have returned to the same level. When China fully satisfied the situation of self-sufficiency, the growth of import data and PTA export volume undoubtedly increased.

At present, the import volume reached 708 thousand and 200 tons in 1-11 months in 2018. It is speculated that China's PTA import volume in 2018 is about 768 thousand and 200 tons, an increase of 45.96% over the same period last year. In 2018, China's PTA exports amounted to 790 thousand tons in 1-11 months. It is estimated that the total PTA export volume in 2018 is about 850 thousand tons, up 62.46% from the same period last year.

Table 12017-2018 PTA imports by country of production (Table: 10000 tons)

Source: Customs General Administration

China's PTA self-sufficiency rate has been rising and the supply exceeds demand. China's import and export data are basically at a balanced level. In 2018, China imported the number of PTA, the Taiwan and Jinma free trade zone. Korea ranked second, followed by Taiwan, China, Japan and Japan.

Figure 22018 PTA exports by production and marketing countries

Source: Customs General Administration

Domestic PTA can be self-sufficient, and some of its goods are exported to other countries. They are mainly Oman, Russian Federation, Macao, India and other countries.

The import and export of PTA in 2018 proved to be a difficult situation, especially in terms of export volume.

With the steady development of domestic installations, the possibility of counterattack is also weak after the PTA supply and demand structure is continuously improving. Under the influence of Sino US trade war, the domestic economic development began to bear pressure in the second half of 2018, and there was still greater pressure in 2019. The negotiation of trade war has also become the focus of attention. With the coming of the festival, the export situation of China's textile and clothing market is particularly critical. If the macro environment is not good enough, the growth rate of PTA will be restrained to a certain extent. In 2019, PTA and polyester have different levels of new capacity release. How to run the market will still be closely watched.