China'S Central Bank Is The Rival Of The Renminbi.

A 5 year assessment will take place in the second half of 2015. Whether the renminbi will be a success depends partly on whether IMF will change its view of the renminbi in 2010, that is, the renminbi can not be "freely used".

Barclays Plc and DBS Group Holdings said that in May, when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) began to explore the renminbi to be included in the global reserve currency, Chinese policymakers would do everything possible to ensure the stability of the RMB exchange rate in May.

and Decision maker Indeed, the foreign exchange reserves of about $4 trillion have been used to do so. In the first quarter, China estimated that foreign exchange reserves of US $33 billion would be used to curb the decline of the renminbi. The decline led to a two-year low of RMB in March.

Although the depreciation of the renminbi helps boost exports and support slowing economic growth, it will hinder China's growth. RMB It is a process of international trade and financing.

Foreign media analysis said that China is trying to challenge the hegemony of the US dollar and Europe and the United States dominate the world. economic order And promoting IMF to bring RMB into the SDR currency basket is the core link to realize this concept.

Zhou Hongli, an economist at DBS in Hongkong, said: "Chinese policymakers will never allow the renminbi to plummet. If you want others to make RMB a reserve asset, it is not wise to let it depreciate significantly at this time."

Zhou Hongli predicted that the probability of RMB being included in the SDR currency basket this year is 90%.

Once IMF is included in SDR, it means that the yuan is officially among the reserve currencies of the US dollar, euro, yen and sterling.

"The Chinese authorities have expressed the intention to include Renminbi in the basket of SDR currencies," said IMF chairman Lagarde (Christine Lagarde) in a March announcement after her visit to China. We welcome and aim for consistency. We will work closely with the Chinese government in this regard. "

After the gold and dollar proved to be in short supply, the SDR, founded in 1969, aims to support the Bretton Woods system with fixed exchange rates. The addition of Renminbi to SDR will bring the renminbi into the basket of currencies that IMF members can calculate to official reserves.

There are many factors that induce investors to short the renminbi at the moment. Economic growth is slowing and capital continues to flow. In addition, according to some indicators, the renminbi is the most overvalued currency in global valuation.

However, there is a most important reason why the renminbi is not short - the investor's opponent is the PBOC.