Domestic Cotton Market "Policy Turning Point" Or Once Again Appears

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< p > at the beginning of this year, affected by the government's decision to implement the target price policy this year in the cotton producing areas of Xinjiang, the domestic cotton market appeared a "policy inflection point" and the Zheng cotton price oscillation descended. The main contract price of the 1501 contract fell 2500 yuan / ton from late January to early July.

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< p > however, because of the wide coverage, the implementation rules of cotton target price policy have not been published, and the "impact" on the cotton industry chain in the mainland has not been clearly reflected.

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< p > to this day, this year's "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp "new cotton < /a" is about to go on sale. The target price policy implementation rules have come to the final announcement time. In addition, the cotton planting area and expected output of the cotton producing areas in the mainland and Xinjiang have been greatly changed by the policy, and the market structure of the downstream cotton industry has also changed significantly. In the interview, many analysts have expressed the view that domestic cotton prices are near the bottom, which means that the "policy turning point" of the domestic cotton market is reappearing.

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< p > Yu Lijuan, senior analyst of Jinshi futures cotton, told futures daily that the implementation details of target price in Xinjiang cotton area are expected to be officially released by the end of July.

It is understood that the form of price subsidies is estimated to be 60% according to cotton farmers' actual cotton planting area subsidies, 40% subsidized by seed cotton sale volume, and the lower limit of cotton seed sale price has not been set yet.

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< p > "before the introduction of the implementation rules of the target price policy, both sides of the Zhengzhou and cotton futures market were cautious.

Zheng cotton contract price after a few months after the fall, the recent signs of bottoming out, the short-term average is also turning upwards.

Yu Lijuan said.

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< p > Yu Lijuan added that the bottom of the domestic cotton price has gradually formed, and the price of Zheng cotton has been close to the bottom.

According to the survey data, the cost of cotton planting in Xinjiang area is between 2000 yuan and 2100 yuan per mu. If the per unit yield of seed cotton is calculated by 350 kg / mu, the cost price of seed cotton is 5.71 - 6 yuan / kg, and the cost of lint cotton is 12900 - 13700 yuan / ton.

Yesterday, Zheng cotton 1501 contract price closed at 14415 yuan / ton, Yu Lijuan believes that there is still room for price decline.

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< p > Huang Shanghai, senior analyst of Changjiang futures cotton, believes that after the new cotton is listed, cotton prices will be increased by the supply and demand decisions after the announcement of the implementation of the target price policy of cotton city.

At present, under the situation that both domestic and foreign cotton markets are in excess of supply, the downward trend of cotton prices has become a reasonable trend.

However, because the price of the 1501 contract period of zhengmian has been below 14500 yuan / ton, the premium of the international cotton price has been greatly reduced, and the premium of the chemical fiber price has gradually dropped.

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< p > "after the new cotton is listed, there is no protection policy for the cotton producing areas in the mainland. It is estimated that the cotton growers will hold a wait-and-see attitude at the beginning of the scale, and Xinjiang cotton is restricted by the pportation bottleneck. In the short term, it is difficult to meet the needs of the mainland's < a target=" _blank "href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/ "> spinning" /a ".

Cotton prices will rebound to a certain extent in the early days of new cotton listing. "

Huang Shanghai said.

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< p > but there are different voices in the market.

"2014/2015 cotton government will temporarily change the policy of temporary purchase and storage to target price direct subsidy policy, and cotton prices will be re led by the market. The cotton market supply will increase significantly after China's new cotton concentrates are listed this year. Even if consumption is warmer, the supply will be overestimated."

Shanghai Sheng Shui International Trade Co., Ltd. research and investment center researcher Dong Shuzhi told reporters that this year's domestic cotton output is estimated at more than 6 million tons, plus 1 million 700 thousand tons of imported cotton, even if it does not count the initial inventory, the total supply is also more than 7 million 700 thousand tons.

If cotton consumption is estimated at 7 million 500 thousand tons this year, the supply and demand of domestic cotton market will be weak or even a little surplus in the whole 2014/2015 cotton year without government reserve.

If the government continues to throw reserves, the oversupply of cotton market will be very serious.

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< p > in Dong Shuzhi's view, although the weather factors delayed the listing of new cotton, coupled with the tight funds of textile enterprises and the low import quotas, cotton imports to the port were not large enough. Cotton farmers in the early days of the beginning of the balance were reluctant to sell. From 9 to November, domestic cotton market may have a short supply strain pattern, but this could not change the big pattern of oversupply.

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< p > according to the relevant actual research results, the current North and South Jiang < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > cotton > /a > the growth is quite different: Northern Shihezi, Kuitun and other places, the weather is fine, the sunshine time is longer, is conducive to the growth of cotton, the local cotton growth is better than the same period last year. Akesu, Kashi and other places in southern Xinjiang are still drier and drier, some cotton fields appear drought, aphids, red spiders and other pests take the opportunity to overflow.

It is also understood that the cotton planting area in the cotton growing areas in China has been greatly reduced this year. Rainy weather in some areas is not conducive to cotton growth.

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