Children Wear Market Casual Wear Is Becoming Increasingly Fierce.
Teenagers
Casual clothes
With the increasing competition in the industry, the high-end market of the second tier cities has been impacted by the international fast fashion brands such as Zara, H&M, Uniqlo and so on. The middle and low end market is hit by the regional brands with online shopping and lower prices.
The competition of children's clothing industry is not as fierce as that of teenage casual wear. Although other leisure and clothing brands are also actively entering the children's wear market, Barbara's market share and channel size advantage are more obvious.
In 2011, the sales of Semir casual wear increased steadily, and the franchisees also had more stock in the hands.
But sales of children's wear is still strong, business income growth is nearly 40%, channels are expanding more than 700, and the total number of stores is about 3200.
In the next few years, Semir's goal is to increase the share of children's clothing from about 1/4 to 1/3-1/2.
Guo Jin Securities researcher Zhang Bin pointed out that the target consumer price sensitivity of middle and low end casual wear is high, and the ability to raise prices under the inflation background is limited. At present, the impact of rising cost and slowing consumption growth is most obvious.
In the early stage, prices will push up product prices because of rising costs, and future consumption growth will show a slow downward trend.
At present, Semir has changed from "channel driven performance" to "product driven, retail capability driven" pition. In the future, it will enter the stage of "extension" expansion to "endogenous" growth adjustment. It is expected that the growth rate of leisure wear will be relatively stable in the future, and the growth rate of income is slightly higher than that of the industry as a whole. However, the pace and effect of adjustment should be observed.
Zhang Bin believes that the children's clothing market is currently in the development stage of leisure clothes 5 years ago.
Children's wear
The industry is in a period of rapid development.
Barbara's children's clothing has prominent competitive advantages, positioning high-end, has a certain ability to raise prices, and children's clothing profit level is higher, to cope with rising cost elasticity, consumption growth decline has a relatively small impact on performance.
Taking into account the low base of children's clothing business, the first mover advantage is obvious, and the growth rate in the future will be faster than the overall growth rate of Semir. The growth of children's clothing business is expected to boost the overall growth of the company's performance.
On the whole, the net profit in the 2011-2013 years is 1 billion 208 million yuan, 1 billion 461 million yuan and 1 billion 724 million yuan respectively. The EPS is 1.804 yuan, 2.180 yuan and 2.573 yuan respectively, up 20.76%, 20.86% and 18.04% respectively.
Give 23 times PE in 2011 and give a "buy" rating.
Guo Haiyan, a researcher at CICC, pointed out that the growth rate of casual wear income in 2011 was about 20%, significantly lower than that in 2010, while children's clothing still maintained a relatively high income growth rate of about 40%.
In 2012, the company's primary goal was to upgrade products, followed by brand promotion and maintenance.
Channel expansion
Speed.
Clothing consumption demand is constantly upgrading and subdividing. Teenagers have higher requirements for the design and fashion of casual clothes.
Semir's original rough product line division and slower renewal rate of goods are increasingly unable to meet the demand. In 2012, we plan to launch fashionable women's clothing with shorter product cycle in the form of different orders from traditional orders.
A small profit cut forecast is expected to be 2.24 and 2.79 yuan in the 2012-2013 year EPS.
Maintain the "prudent recommendation" rating.
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