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The Reserve Rate Rose By &Nbsp Today; The Marginal Effect Is Decreasing Significantly.

2011/5/18 15:24:00 54

Reserve Ratio Macro Data Monetary Tightening Policy

Since the central bank announced the fifth "raise" in May 12th, the rate of money market lending has only risen for two days.

This can not help reminiscent of the third or fourth increase in the reserve ratio this year, the market made a similar reaction.

According to yesterday's 7 day weighted average repo rate 4.59% calculation, compared to 12, the interest rate rose by about 183 basis points.

It is worth noting that this is not only far less than the 500 base points increase for 5 days in the first increase in January this year, but also below the 340 basis points for 3 consecutive days after the Spring Festival.

This shows two dominant conclusions, one is the increase of the central bank.

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The marginal effect has declined significantly. Two, the stock liquidity in the banking system is still ample.

According to money brokerage company traders, the supply of funds in the afternoon of 16 days increased significantly until the weighted interest rate fell yesterday.

It can be said that the central bank raised the reserve ratio at a monthly rate and did not achieve the goal of tightening liquidity in real terms. Behind the appearance of the repurchase rate rise, more is the right to speak of funds in big banks, and the effect of inflation is not satisfactory.

The consumer price index (CPI) announced in April has increased by 5.3% over the same period last year, and all eight sub categories of CPI have risen.

Today, in a new way of thinking, the reserve ratio increase can stimulate the bond market.

Macro data

On the nerves of numbness, investors should also pay more attention to all factors, such as the appreciation of the renminbi, the change of benchmark interest rate, the rate of return on overseas hot money, and other factors that affect the increase or decrease of foreign exchange reserves, and how the amount of the funds expired in the open market will change with the rolling operation of the central bank and the repurchase.

The 3 - year central bank, one of the bond categories, was reissued on Thursday. From the perspective of hedging liquidity, it will extend the return period and ease the pressure on the open market operation.

Theoretically, it is unquestionable that some of its reserve requirements should be raised.

However, the explicit expectation of RMB appreciation has made the current monetary policy passive.

Even though the trade surplus is declining, the overall liquidity of the market is still increasing due to the increase in foreign exchange settlement and capital account.

Despite the central bank

Monetary tightening policy

The trade surplus has been decreasing for a quarter, but foreign exchange is still increasing. Investment and hot money are increasing.

In addition, the May open market maturity of 541 billion yuan has been reduced by 370 billion yuan from the April 911 billion yuan scale, which is exactly equivalent to the amount of liquidity recovered by the increase in the reserve ratio.

However, the high foreign exchange rate has directly prompted the central bank to take the fifth "raise" in the year.

Hu Xiaolian, deputy governor of the central bank, said recently that the increase in the deposit reserve ratio was mainly against the new liquidity that was put into the foreign exchange inflow, which had no significant impact on the normal positions of financial institutions, and the overall effect was neutral.

From theoretical and practical analysis, there is still room for future adjustment of the deposit reserve ratio.