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The Three Quarter A Shares: The Upward Pressure Is Still &Nbsp; October Is Difficult.

2010/10/5 22:09:00 41

The September market is affected by the Mid Autumn Festival and the national day double festival.

volume

Atrophy of the situation under the flat ending, although stimulated by the rise of the external market, but the appearance of the holiday effect so that the end of the month market still did not bring more surprises, the Shanghai Composite Index barely in the vicinity of 2600 shocks, the market is difficult to form an effective rebound, the short term trend is still uncertain.

On the whole, the A share market in the three quarter was on schedule as scheduled.

rebound

Quotes, July is in the policy change expected to "value recovery" as the theme of the traditional cycle industry rebound, 8 and September, the stock index focused on thematic stocks speculation as the main, although the performance index is far less than July, but the activity of stocks is far beyond July, the performance of the stock is the best in the year.

Looking forward to October, the current market does not really form a significant increase in support. First, the path and feasibility of economic pformation is still unclear. Second, far from the next year, the rise in enterprise costs is a relatively definite event, and there is a downward trend in corporate earnings expectations. Third, before the new investment chain is formed, the trend of real estate will almost affect the overall situation. However, the real estate policy and actual direction still need to be clear about the volume and price data in October. Fourth, liquidity is still deteriorating.

However, GF believes that the market is limited in space and there is a greater probability of a small rebound (2900 points).

From the characteristics of the market, after the long holiday, the two cities of Shanghai and Shenzhen will usher in the disclosure period of the three quarterly report.

As of September 30th, 746 listed companies have disclosed three quarterly earnings forecasts.

Among them, the "Preview" company, whose performance increased, losses or surpluses increased to 565, accounting for 76% of the number of companies announced by the three quarterly bulletin.

From the present point of view, most of the three quarter performance continues to grow, and the medium term eye-catching industries will not grow in the three quarter.

At the same time, the overall security margin of the market is high, so the stock index still has the space to repair the upwards valuation.

But considering that

Regulation policy

Uncertainty, the market failed to form a consistent expectation, the weakness of heavyweight will also hinder the market rebound height, structural hot spots are expected to continue.

Investment strategy can be divided into two stages. Before the holiday, attention should still be paid to preventing the risk of individual callbacks and paying attention to structural trading opportunities.

After the festival, assets can be flexibly allocated according to policy trends and market changes, which can continue the thinking of industry configuration in September and focus on core industries.

It is recommended to match commercial retail and big electronic information, low utilities, real estate, and other industries.

It is suggested that commercial retail, electronic information, food and beverage, catering and tourism, household appliances, pportation equipment, machinery and equipment, building materials and other industries should be allocated in priority.