China'S Apparent Improvement In Cross-Border Capital Situation Seems To Be A Good Omen.

Recently, the Information Office of the State Council held the first quarter foreign exchange revenue and expenditure data conference in 2016.

Wang Chunying, spokesman for the State Administration of foreign exchange, pointed out at the meeting that in the first quarter of 2016, there were positive changes in some key indicators. The cross border funds in China showed a gradual easing of outflow pressure, and the RMB exchange rate tended to be basically stable and foreign exchange reserves were still abundant.

In this regard, experts pointed out that the main reason for the good development of many foreign exchange indicators lies in the good performance of the domestic economy and the relative weakness of the US dollar index, which is likely to continue.

China's cross-border capital deficit continued to narrow in the first quarter of this year.

According to the data from the State Administration of foreign exchange, the deficit in January 2016 was $69 billion 400 million, and the deficit narrowed to $35 billion in January. The deficit in March further reduced to $33 billion 600 million.

To a certain extent, the pressure of capital outflow depends on the stable performance of the RMB exchange rate.

Experts pointed out that at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated greatly, and the expectation of RMB depreciation was strong. However, the stability of RMB recently not only alleviated the pressure of capital outflow, but also proved that the RMB did not have the foundation of a substantial depreciation.

Wang Chunying pointed out that the RMB exchange rate generally stabilized.

According to the foreign exchange administration data, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell slightly in January. Since February, the price difference has been narrowing since February. The average price difference between overseas CNH (RMB spot trading price in offshore market) and domestic CNY (domestic interbank foreign exchange market RMB exchange traded price) is 419, 111 and 94 basis points respectively, and the RMB exchange rate for a basket of currencies has remained basically stable.

"The contrast of forces in the market has prompted this good situation.

First of all, China's economy started well. In the first quarter, China's economic indicators were eye-catching, fixed asset investment growth picked up, and market sales grew steadily. These positive changes have enhanced our economy's ability to resist pressure. Secondly, in terms of international factors, the weakening of the Fed's interest rate expectations and the decline in the US dollar index have provided the conditions for cross-border capital flows to stabilize. Finally, in the renminbi,

The central bank's series of preventive measures have effectively curbed the vicious speculation in capital flows.

Guo Tianyong, director of the China banking research center of Central University of Finance and Economics, said in an interview with our reporter.

"Cross border China's future"

The overall situation will remain basically stable. "

Wang Chunying said that with the development of China's economy and the adjustment of economic structure, the demand of domestic entities to allocate resources at the same time in two international and domestic markets will also rise. The two-way flow of cross-border capital will be more active, but this usually has to undergo a gradual adaptation and improvement process, and the relevant capital flows will remain in a predictable and controllable range.

The latest survey released by Fudan Development Research Institute Financial Research Center shows that the US dollar is back to the devaluation trend, and the sentiment of the RMB exchange rate has obviously improved.

Shen Jianguang, chief economist of Mizuho Securities Asia, expects that the renminbi will remain basically stable for at least the first three quarters of this year.

It is unreasonable to say that the large fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate in the early stage is abnormal.

Now this relatively stable state is in line with the reality, especially the Chinese economy will continue to provide stable support for the RMB, and now the outside world's confidence in China's economic development is also rising.

In the long run, the RMB exchange rate will steadily rise. "

Say.

Foreign exchange reserves, after experiencing a sustained decline in the previous period, have been lifted from March this year.

China's foreign exchange reserves reached US $3 trillion and 212 billion 579 million in March, an increase of US $10 billion 258 million in the previous month, ending 4 months of negative growth and the first monthly increase since October, according to central bank data.

"The positive significance of this recovery is that, on the one hand, it can provide a good financial environment for China's economic development and stabilize its economic development; on the other hand, it will stabilize external expectations for China's economic development.

Too fast a drop in foreign exchange reserves can easily lead to adverse economic expectations. Once bad expectations are formed, the economy will be more impacted.

Therefore, stability expectations are particularly important. "

Guo Tianyong said.

Yao Shaohua, senior economist at Hang Seng Bank, believes that China's foreign exchange reserves are still adequate at this stage and will continue to linger at a high level. The reason is that the offshore and offshore RMB exchange rates have significantly improved, and the need for the central bank to use foreign exchange reserves to intervene in the foreign exchange market has also decreased significantly.

The situation is stable and we need to guard against possible fluctuations.

Experts pointed out that changes in the US dollar index and other unexpected situations may still affect the RMB exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves. Therefore, the central bank should also make a good response plan ahead of time, respond to shocks through various tools, and do more work in the real economy or industrial development.

It is commendable that the central bank has acted.

The central bank said recently that the people's Bank of China issued data on foreign exchange reserves in the US dollar and SDR as a reporting currency starting in April this year.

Taking SDR as the reporting currency of foreign exchange reserves helps to reduce the fluctuation of valuation caused by frequent fluctuations in major countries' exchange rates, and objectively reflects the comprehensive value of foreign exchange reserves.